Trump's second term brings opportunities for China-EU cooperation: experts' opinions

"In emerging sectors like digital technology, deeper collaboration could give the EU access to cutting-edge advancements on par with those of China and the U.S."

China's leading experts on European affairs believe that U.S. President Trump's second term in office could present fresh opportunities for China and the EU to enhance collaboration, particularly in economic and trade issues. This development could pave the way to unfreeze the comprehensive bilateral investment agreement between the two parties.

Today, we will discuss some of the latest developments in China-EU relations in the current context, especially the stagnant EU economy, the new Trump administration's threats to the 27-state bloc, and the potential for closer engagement between China and the EU.

Over the past three months, one of the biggest highlights in international news has undoubtedly been Donald Trump again becoming the President of the United States. Since he assumed office on Jan. 20, the world has experienced a series of major impacts. On day one of his second term, Trump signed a series of executive orders, including withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate change. On Feb. 1, the United States imposed a 10-percent tariff on goods from China and 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico, while the last two were held after Canada and Mexico agreed to reinforce their borders with the United States.

From the very day Trump won the presidential election, the EU has been deeply concerned about the pressure exerted by the U.S. Trump's threats to raise NATO defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP, his intention to take over Gaza and to cut support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia—a top political priority for the EU—and his overt interest in Greenland, which poses a direct challenge to the territorial integrity of Denmark, an EU member state, have all fueled growing unease within the EU.

However, trade is the most imminent issue, as Trump repeatedly complained about the "unbalanced" U.S.-EU trade, threatening to start a trade war with the EU. He even called the EU a "mini China." (A diplomat from an EU member state in China told us half-jokingly that he took it as a compliment, LOL)

In the latest development, the United States on Feb. 10 substantially raised tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% with a pretext to aid the struggling industries, triggering a flurry of angry reactions as the EU, Canada and Mexico quickly vowed to retaliate firmly.

Alongside trade challenges, the EU has faced sluggish economic growth in recent years and the economic outlook is not optimistic either. The GDP growth rates of the EU, along with its key member states Germany and France, rank among the lowest in developed countries and major emerging markets. Germany's economy is contracting, while the overall EU economy has increased by just one percent.

What's worse is that the EU is lagging behind both the United States and China in some future technologies. China in recent days surprised the world with DeepSeek and more and more made-in-China electric vehicles run all over the world, the EU's innovation is falling behind due to its excessive adherence to rules and regulations, according to the widely-discussed EU's competitiveness report prepared in September by Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank.

In this context, some European politicians are turning their attention to China—a country that has been distanced in recent years due to the European Parliament's "freezing" of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in May 2021 and the European Commission's push for a "de-risking" strategy toward Beijing. The EU's failure to ratify the CAI has deprived both China and the EU of many business opportunities.

At the EU Ambassadors Conference 2025 on Feb. 4, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said there was space to find agreements with Beijing and even expand trade and investment ties, in an era of hyper-competitive and hyper-transactional geopolitics.

Von der Leyen, who put forward the "de-risking" strategy two years ago and is often viewed as a hardliner toward China, told ambassadors in Brussels that this will be an intense year in our relationship with China, as we mark half a century of diplomatic relations.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the EU Ambassadors Conference 2025 on Feb. 4, 2025.

Maros Sefcovic, the EU's trade chief, also said recently in the European Parliament that there was room to expand the EU's trade and investment ties with China.

China responded to von der Leyen's words positively. Lin Jian, spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry, said on Feb. 5 at a regular press briefing that the world faces risks of polarization, fragmentation, and disorder, making the China-Europe relationship even more strategically significant and globally impactful.

Lin added that China views the EU as a comprehensive strategic partner and an important, independent pole in a multipolar world, aiming to promote the positive and forward-looking development of China-EU relations, to provide the world with more stability and certainty.

How do Chinese experts evaluate the current development of China-EU relations in Trum's second term? We have interviewed two professors with specialties in Germany and France, in politics and economic and trade issues, respectively. They are Prof. Xiong Wei (熊炜), Professor of Diplomatic Studies and Director of the Research Center for Comparative Foreign Policy Analysis at China Foreign Affairs University, and Prof. Zhao Yongsheng (赵永升), Director of the French Centre for Economic Research at the University of International Business and Economics. Zhao is currently a visiting scholar at Sorbonne University in Paris.

In summary, Prof. Xiong believed that Trump's second term would not only challenge the multilateral world order but also seriously affect trans-Atlantic relations like his first term. Despite the increased reliance on the United States, the EU employs soft balancing through multilateralism and cooperation with China, alongside adapting to U.S. policies. It brings opportunities for China-EU cooperation, including the unfreezing of the CAI.

Professor Zhao noted that facing strained relations with the U.S. and sluggish economic growth in a vulnerable multilateral system, engagement with China would become a solution for the EU to deal with challenges. Reviving the frozen CAI could support the EU's industrial transformation. While opportunities for China-EU cooperation are substantial, the relationship remains complex, requiring the EU to carefully balance its engagement with both the United States and China.

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Xiong Wei, Professor of Diplomatic Studies and Director of the Research Center for Comparative Foreign Policy Analysis, China Foreign Affairs University

Prof. Xiong:

The impact of Trump 2.0 on multilateralism and the international order is self-evident. This impact likely exceeds many people's expectations. It is not merely about using trade tariffs as a coercive tool in foreign policy, but more importantly, it challenges the so-called rules-based order that Europeans often emphasize. Trump has not only withdrawn from international institutions but also challenged the international order, including the sovereignty and territory.

Specifically in terms of the relationship between Europe and the United States, the impacts are as follows: The United States is certain to impose tariffs on the EU, leading to severe negative repercussions on US-EU trade.

Washington will also insist that its European allies shoulder a larger share of the costs for security cooperation—specifically within NATO. This remains a central demand for Trump, and he is resolute in pursuing it. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, divisions over energy and climate policies are set to deepen further.

Despite these impacts on its relations with the United States, the EU has become more reliant on its trans-Atlantic partner. NATO continues to serve as the cornerstone of European security. Eastern European nations, in particular, prioritize NATO and U.S. support due to insufficient budgets and a lack of operational capabilities facing the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The EU's dependence on the United States in high-tech sectors is significant, especially in critical areas such as AI, 5G, and cybersecurity. The development of the EU's digital single market largely depends on the technological support of American companies. In addition, countries like Germany have seen an increase in their reliance on the U.S. for energy supplies, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

In this context, the EU has two approaches to engaging with the United States: first, soft balancing, which means that the EU counters U.S. unilateralism by strengthening multilateralism, the UN framework, and enhancing cooperation with other countries such as the Global South, including China. This strategy has gained prominence since the 21st century, particularly after the Iraq War, and aims to constrain U.S. hegemony through multilateral rules.

Secondly, adaption strategy. In the post-Cold War unipolar era, the EU has to adapt to the changes of the United States by adjusting its policies to align with its natural trans-Atlantic ally, especially in security issues. The two strategies coexist, but balancing the two is a challenge facing the EU.

In other words, unless extreme scenarios occur, there is enough space for the EU to implement its soft balancing strategy, including diversified free trade arrangements with other players. Therefore, the thawing of the CAI is possible.

It is worth mentioning that the EU did not follow the United States in fully blocking China in high-tech sectors, as seen during the Biden administration. Instead, China-EU cooperation in science and technology continued to advance. For example, the 16th EU-China Joint Steering Committee Meeting on Science and Technology Cooperation was held in November 2024, marking the first in-person gathering of its kind since 2018.

What we should also focus on in von der Leyen's remarks is her use of the phrase "constructive engagement," a term that the EU has not employed in its discussions about China for quite some time. At least it indicates that the EU's original unrealistic strategy of completely de-risking from China should have been deemed unfeasible.

Now it is undoubtedly a good time for China-EU cooperation. However, we should not overestimate it, because China-EU relations have become more complex and can no longer return to what they were before.

Prof. Zhao Yongsheng, Director of the French Centre for Economic Research at the University of International Business and Economics, currently a visiting scholar at Sorbonne University in Paris.

Prof. Zhao:

I refer to Trump’s second term in office as the era of "New Trumpism." This version of Trumpism no longer follows the postwar order that has shaped global affairs for nearly 80 years, an order that includes respect for territorial integrity, national sovereignty, and trade rules like those of the WTO. In the past, the United States generally played by the rules. But now, things have changed -- the entire rulebook is being rewritten.

The EU and the United States share common values and possess similar political systems, which means there are no deep-rooted conflicts between them. However, tensions do exist and have intensified since Trump took office. I believe the EU was not fully prepared for this shift, as it is now facing significant pressure on multiple fronts.

The EU's economic growth has been sluggish, hampered by a lack of innovation. Traditional industries continue to dominate much of "old Europe." Over the past decade, digital technology has become one of the most notable areas of growth. However, while the U.S. and China boast multiple tech giants, Europe has none. This has resulted in the EU falling behind in innovation, further widening the gap between the U.S. and China.

The EU has made significant strides in green development and climate initiatives. But this progress has come at a cost, with many polluting industries outsourced to developing countries. Adding to these challenges, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has hit the EU the hardest. As a result, the European economy has remained lukewarm at best.

Under the current situation, the potential for China-EU cooperation is enormous and highly significant. In emerging sectors like digital technology, deeper collaboration could give the EU access to cutting-edge advancements on par with those of China and the U.S., but at a lower cost and with greater efficiency than what they currently have.

The United States now champions non-free trade, violating WTO rules and undermining the multilateral system. This makes China-EU cooperation all the more crucial. As long as China and the EU are determined to maintain their partnership, they can help uphold the multilateral system to some extent. Cooperation between China and the EU is essential because in the long run, trade will inevitably lean toward multilateralism and free trade.

The EU is also in urgent need of investment, and China is well-positioned to provide it. Therefore, restarting the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) as soon as possible is necessary.

CAI is the result of seven years of arduous negotiations but was later "frozen" due to certain reasons. If the CAI could be "unfrozen" and reinstated as soon as possible, it would fundamentally enhance the quality and quantity of China-EU economic and trade relations. This would not only lead to a significant increase and improvement in FDI and bilateral trade but also catalyze the development of digital and green technologies, and the whole economies of China and the EU. This is particularly true in large-scale AI models and big data centers, and others. In this way, China can play a significant role in helping the EU with its industrial transformation, especially since this is one of the EU's top economic priorities at the moment.

The potential for economic and trade relations is undoubtedly vast. For instance, trade between China and France currently stands at around 80 billion euros annually, which is relatively modest. However, I believe the overall trade potential between China and the EU is enormous.

Von der Leyen's statement indeed reflects a pragmatic approach. For the EU, the ultimate objective is to enhance collaboration with China while maintaining a balanced and strategic management of its relationships with both the United States and China.